This morning's CPI print of .1% surprised most market watchers as some "inflationists" were expecting .5% and consensus was at .3%. So, this is easy math. That's annualized inflation of 1.2%. That's right...1.2%. Wow! Now, I don't want to take a victory lap just yet as the market will humble any and all who profess to be it's master but we have been telling our clients that inflation likely peaked last year in May and that inflation would likely fall substantially. It has. I've also gone on the record as saying that the last Fed hike was likely the last of the cycle. I'm still on that page, although the Fed could throw in another 25 bps for good measure. In any event, I think it's 11:45PM for the day of Fed hikes. Now, Question: When will they begin to cut? Answer: (in my humble opinion) probably not until another corpse (see Silcon Valley Bank) floats to the surface. Get your dramamine. The road trip to the end of this year may be a bumpy one but I think we're driving to a lower rate environment that the whole family (i.e. stocks, bonds, and the economy) may really enjoy.
The CPI craters
April 12, 2023